Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Modeling Disaster

"The availability of previously inconceivable amounts of computing horsepower is enabling insurers to develop catastrophe models that can narrow the divide between what humans can imagine and what nature can do.

...AR Worldwide, a big-three catastrophe modeler, is modeling 10,000 years of weather to build a probabilistic model for flooding in Germany. 'At best, we have 100 years of historical data,' says Jayanta Guin, AIR's SVP of research and modeling. "That's not enough." So instead of simply using the data from those 100 years to make a model, AIR ran 10,000 possible permutations of that historical data to provide what Guin calls 'the full universe of possible outcomes.'

... even with the increasing comprehensiveness of catastrophe models, the ability to quantify loss and risk is still constrained by lack of data and the fundamental unpredictability of nature." Read the CFO Magazine article.

Why Women Aren’t C.E.O.s, According to Women Who Almost Were

"It’s not a pipeline problem. It’s about loneliness, competition and deeply rooted barriers." Read more in the NYT .